December 2023
By Richard Fleming
Photo courtesy of Juliane Liebermann
As the end of a year approaches, people commonly reflect back on the past and look forward to the future. I try not to dwell on looking backward, but instead try to contemplate – with a measure of optimism and realism – what the future may hold. This December, for some reason, I’m spending more time pondering what the future will hold for our grandchildren and their generation. What will their lives be like long after we are gone? And I especially wonder how growing old will unfold for them, a half century from now. How will their journey into old age differ from the road we Boomers are currently traveling?
It can seem hard to imagine our grandchildren growing old. During this holiday season, their enthusiasm, excitement, and energy is boundless. But their youthful vigor belies the reality they too will one day face the challenges every preceding generation had to confront – how to navigate the awkwardness and myriad booby traps of old age.
As I think about our grandchildren’s generation aging into senior status, I feel apprehensive. My concern stems from serious and evolving problems they will likely face as they age. While the impact of these difficulties will not be limited to the elderly – all of society will feel the effects – they will hit seniors especially hard.
Before mentioning these problems, I want to reflect on how growing old today compares to what it was like for our grandparents to grow old. The aging process today is not vastly different from the aging process then. Our grandparents had to manage the same adversities faced by seniors throughout the ages: health issues, cognitive challenges, finding living situations appropriate for their needs, loneliness, and oftentimes financial insecurity.
People’s ability to navigate these problems is always greatly impacted by the social context of the time. Our grandparents grew old in a society with a new and moderately effective safety net. Medicare and Medicaid were established in 1965 and these programs significantly improved access to health care for seniors. Social Security, originally established in 1935, was expanded in the 1960s and helped with financial security for seniors. Society was moving in the direction of expanding people’s rights, with the passage of the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act. Growing old was not easy for our grandparents, but it was a bit less stressful than it had been for their grandparents.
Today, the societal context in which we are growing old is fairly similar to that of our grandparents. The challenges we Boomers face with aging are roughly comparable to those they encountered a half century ago.
But for today’s youngest generation – Generation Alpha – society might be radically different when they grow old. There are worrisome trends which could adversely impact the process of aging later this century. Two of the most concerning are climate change and artificial intelligence.
On the problem of climate change, unless we significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global warming will be much worse in 50 years. The environment will be more difficult to live in for everyone, but especially for seniors. Extreme weather events will become even more frequent than today. Heat-related illnesses and infectious diseases will likely be more widespread. Old people’s bodies are less resilient. We are less mobile. We are more dependent on an intact medical care system. These realities make seniors more vulnerable to global warming. International and domestic climate migration (away from coastal areas and intolerable heat) will almost certainly divert resources and attention away from the needs of old people.
We already are living with the impacts of climate change today. But the damage will vastly increase in the decades ahead unless there is widespread adoption of renewable energy.
As far as artificial intelligence (AI), the potential risks are enormous. Little seems to be standing in the way of AI’s expanding role in society. While societal control today already rests in fewer hands than was the case previously, AI could well lead to a further concentration of power. The spread of AI in our economy and political system could yield a further erosion of democratic input and popular voice in how society should function. AI can exacerbate social divisions, racial inequality, and stereotyping of marginalized groups, including seniors.
Very alarming is the possibility that machines may one day become “smarter” than humans. If this happens, there will be little reason for machine-controlled societies to value old people. Supporting seniors is a costly endeavor, since we consume more societal resources than we add back. For seniors to be accepted and respected members of the social order, large doses of empathy and love are required. Artificial intelligence is the mortal enemy of emotional intelligence. And compassion cannot be coded into a computer.
Any number of other issues could threaten old folks later this century. Without elaborating on how they might affect seniors, these hazards include rising authoritarianism, wealth inequality, food shortages, and more virulent pandemics. The bottom line is that successful aging may be a vastly bigger challenge for our grandchildren than it is for us.
We Boomers already have a difficult time aging gracefully. Do we really want to make growing old even harder for future generations?
We have the knowledge and wherewithal to reduce these risks to our grandchildren. With a new year dawning, perhaps it is an appropriate time to consider whether we have the will to do so.
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